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The Future of the European Electricity Supply: Moving from Energy-Mix Projections to Renewables-Based Scenarios

Despite the disappointing outcome of the Copenhagen Climate Conference, the EU is working on a roadmap towards a low-carbon economy by 2050. Ambitious long-term emissions targets can only be achieved if the power sector becomes carbon-neutral. How to achieve a transition to a decarbonised electricity supply is controversial and the subject of much research.

In the past, most studies into the future of the power sector have focussed on the medium term and developed scenarios by projecting forward from present costs, technologies and infrastructures. More recently, however, a new generation of scenarios has emerged that adopt a backcasting approach. This paper reviews six influential studies that explore the feasibility of a renewables-based electricity supply in Europe. The analysis shows that, despite major differences in scope and methodological approach, all of the studies analysed come to the common conclusion that a near-complete shift to renewable energy sources by 2050 is technically feasible and economically affordable. Interestingly, however, due to different assumptions and methodologies, the technological trajectories favoured by each of the scenarios show considerable differences, not only in relation to electricity generation technologies, but also in relation to grid and storage issues.

Copyright:	© Lexxion Verlagsgesellschaft mbH
Quelle:	Issue 02/2010 (Oktober 2010)
Seiten:	9
Preis:	€ 41,65
Autor:	Julia Hertin Dr. Christian Hey Franz Ecker
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